\u7f16\u8005\u6309\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u6765\u81ea\u5fae\u4fe1\u516c\u4f17\u53f7 ThinkingSlow\u7f13\u6162\u601d\u8003\uff08ID:ThinkingSlow\uff09\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u6234\u6c68\uff0c\u5fae\u65b0\u521b\u60f3\u7ecf\u6388\u6743\u8f6c\u8f7d\u3002<\/p>\n
1985\u5e74\u7684\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u4e1a\u7ee9\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u589e\u957f\u4e8648.2%\u3002\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u7b26\u5408\u54c8\u96f7\u5f57\u661f\u7684\u5230\u8bbf\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u8fd9\u8f88\u5b50\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u770b\u89c1\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\uff1a<\/p>\n
1) 1964~1984\u5e74\u4f4e\u8ff7\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u5728\u4e86\uff0c\u5f88\u96be\u627e\u5230\u597d\u6295\u8d44<\/p>\n
2) \u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u7684\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u6bd410\u5e74\u524d\u5927\u4e8620\u500d<\/p>\n
\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u601d\u8003\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u4e0d\u662f\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u591a\u7279\u522b\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5148\u5bfb\u627e\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\uff08base rate\uff09\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7ad9\u57281985\u5e74\uff0c\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d85\u8fc710\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb10\u5e74\u80fd\u4fdd\u630120%\u7684\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u589e\u957f\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u89c1\u8fc7\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u628a\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u7684\u957f\u671f\u590d\u5408\u589e\u957f\u76ee\u6807\u8bbe\u5b9a\u5728\u4e8615%\u3002<\/p>\n
1984\u5e74\u8981\u5b9e\u73b010\u5e7415%\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u9700\u898139\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u5229\u6da6\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u53d8\u6210\u4e8657\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u3002\u518d\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u53ea\u670915\u5bb6\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u53f8\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e8657\u4ebf\u7f8e\u91d1\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u89c9\u5f9715%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\uff0c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u4ee5\u540e\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ed4\u7ec6\u89c2\u5bdf\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u8bf4\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6982\u7387\u662f\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u3002\u5426\u5219\u4ed6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4ece\u6765\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u8ba9\u522b\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n
1\uff09\u957f\u671f\u4e3b\u4e49\uff1a\u4e0d\u53d7\u5b63\u5ea6\u6216\u5e74\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u5f71\u54cd<\/p>\n
2\uff09\u72ec\u7acb\u601d\u8003\uff1a\u4e0d\u53d7\u8fc7\u5f80\u5386\u53f2\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u7ed3\u6784\u6216\u6d41\u884c\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/p>\n
3\uff09\u4ed6\u4eec\u70ed\u7231\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c<\/p>\n
\u7ad9\u57282023\u5e74\uff0c\u4f60\u731c\u731c\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74\u4ed6\u7684\u589e\u957f\u7387\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/p>\n
\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u4e00\u76f4\u4e3b\u5f20\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6216\u8005\u63a5\u8fd1\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u80a1\u4e1c\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5c31\u548c\u5e95\u5c42\u751f\u610f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u4e86\u80a1\u4e1c\u4ece\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u7092\u4f5c\u4e0a\u6536\u76ca\u3002<\/p>\n
\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u80a1\u4e1c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6574\u4f53\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u662f\u548c\u5e95\u5c42\u751f\u610f\u6536\u76ca\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u65f6\u95f4\u4e70\u5165\u7684\u80a1\u4e1c\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u5c31\u4e0d\u540c\u4e86\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u80a1\u4ef7\u4f1a\u624d\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u957f\u671f\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8005\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u8fd9\u4e2a\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u4f2f\u514b\u5e0c\u5c14\u5438\u5f15\u7684\u80a1\u4e1c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u662f\u4e2a\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u673a\u6784\u3002<\/p>\n
\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u6309\u7406\u8bf4\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u62ff\u7740\u9ad8\u85aa\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u4e13\u4e1a\u4eba\u58eb\u3002\u4f46\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u80a1\u4ef7\u6ce2\u52a8\u5927\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u80cc\u540e\u6070\u6070\u662f\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u601d\u7ef4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u7b11\u8bdd\u6765\u6bd4\u55bb\u3002\u6709\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7c7b\u6bd4\u6070\u5f53\u7684\u7b11\u8bdd\u8981\u6bd4\u8bf4\u9053\u7406\u6765\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u76f4\u63a5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u77f3\u6cb9\u52d8\u63a2\u5546\uff0c\u8fdb\u5165\u4e86\u5929\u5802\u3002\u5723\u4ebaPeter\u548c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\u201d\u77f3\u6cb9\u52d8\u63a2\u5546\u7684\u9662\u5b50\u90fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f4f\u6ee1\u4e86\uff0c\u6ca1\u6cd5\u5b89\u6392\u4f60\u3002\u201c \u77f3\u6cb9\u52d8\u63a2\u5546\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u90a3\u6211\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u5bf9\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4f4f\u6237\u8bf4\u51e0\u4e2a\u5355\u8bcd\u3002\u201d\u3002Peter\u9ed8\u8bb8\u4e86\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u597d\u50cf\u6ca1\u4ec0\u4e48\u5bb3\u5904\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5546\u4eba\u5bf9\u7740\u91cc\u9762\u558a\u4e86\u4e00\u58f0\uff1a\u201c\u5730\u72f1\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002\u201c \u9662\u5b50\u7684\u95e8\u7acb\u5373\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\uff0c\u52d8\u63a2\u5546\u4eec\u6210\u7fa4\u7ed3\u961f\u7684\u5954\u5411\u5730\u72f1\u3002Peter\u5927\u4e3a\u5403\u60ca\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u52d8\u63a2\u5546\u8bf4\uff1a\u201d\u73b0\u5728\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f4f\u8fdb\u53bb\u4e86\u3002\u201c \u4e0d\u6599\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u52d8\u63a2\u5546\u8bf4\uff1a\u201d\u4e0d\u884c\uff0c\u6211\u73b0\u5728\u8981\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eec\u53bb\u5730\u72f1\u3002j\u5373\u4f7f\u90a3\u662f\u8c0e\u8a00\uff0c\u6216\u8bb8\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u771f\u7684\u6210\u5206\u3002\u201c<\/p>\n
\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u4e0d\u662f\u94b1\u7684\u4e3b\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u9996\u8981\u52a8\u673a\u662f\u4fdd\u4f4f\u5de5\u4f5c\u62ff\u5230\u9ad8\u5de5\u8d44\u3002\u5192\u4e0d\u4ece\u4f17\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u8d62\u4e86\u53ea\u662f\u8001\u677f\u7684\u53e3\u5934\u8868\u626c\u6216\u8005\u4e00\u70b9\u70b9\u5956\u91d1\uff0c\u8f93\u4e86\u5374\u662f\u751f\u6d3b\u4e4b\u5fe7\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u6700\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff1a\u4fdd\u8bc1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e1a\u7ee9\u548c\u5e02\u573a\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u5546\u4e1a\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u7684\u6210\u7ee9\u7ecf\u5e38\u7528\u5229\u6da6\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6765\u5ea6\u91cf\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u7684\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u8003\u8651\u589e\u957f\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u51c0\u8d44\u4ea7\u56de\u62a5\u7387\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5229\u6da6\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u5165\u589e\u957f\u4e86\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u5426\u5219\u7684\u8bdd\u53ea\u8981\u628a\u5229\u6da6\u7559\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u4e0d\u5206\u7ed9\u80a1\u4e1c\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u81ea\u7136\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9053\u7406\u548c\u50a8\u84c4\u8d26\u6237\u662f\u4e00\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5e74\u5316\u5229\u7387\u662f8%\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u518d\u6295\u8d44\uff0c18\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u4e5f\u80fd\u7ffb\u56db\u756a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u559c\u6b22\u7528\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u6743\u6765\u6fc0\u52b1\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u548c\u80a1\u4e1c\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u534f\u540c\u3002\u80a1\u7968\u671f\u6743\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u9519\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u6309\u7167\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e1a\u7ee9\u6807\u51c6\u6765\u53d1\u653e\u3002<\/p>\n
\u540c\u6837\u8fd8\u662f\u7528\u50a8\u84c4\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u6765\u8bf4\u660e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a$100,000\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u8d26\u6237\uff0c\u5e74\u5229\u73878%\u3002\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u6258\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u4e3a\u4f60\u7ba1\u7406\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d26\u6237\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u51b3\u5b9a\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u591a\u5c11\u7528\u4e8e\u73b0\u91d1\u5206\u7ea2\uff0c\u591a\u5c11\u7528\u4e8e\u518d\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5206\u7ea2\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f\u6bcf\u5e74\u5229\u606f\u76841\/4\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5341\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u8d26\u6237\u91cc\u7684\u5b58\u6b3e\u4f1a\u53d8\u6210$179,084\uff0c \u4f60\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u4f1a\u4ece$8000\u53d8\u4e3a$13,515\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u5206\u7ea2\u4f1a\u4ece\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u7684$2000\u6da8\u5230\u7b2c\u5341\u5e74\u7684$3,378\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8bd5\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6309\u7167\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u4f60\u7684\u50a8\u84c4\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u7ed9\u4f60\u7684\u4fe1\u6258\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u4e00\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74\u56fa\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u671f\u6743\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u4ece\u4f60\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u589e\u957f\u91cc\u83b7\u53d6\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4fe1\u6258\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u7cbe\u660e\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u80af\u5b9a\u8fd8\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5206\u7ea2\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5e72\u8106\u4e0d\u5206\u7ea2\u3002<\/p>\n
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\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u8bbe\u7f6e\u8fd9\u79cd\u56fa\u5b9a\u4ef7\u683c\u671f\u6743\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e5f\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4e0d\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4e3b\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u673a\u6784\u6295\u8d44\u4eba\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u5c42\uff0c\u5229\u76ca\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u7528\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u535a\u5f08\u6765\u8bb2\u5c31\u662f\uff1aHead, I win; Tail, I don't lose.<\/p>\n
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\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u5f15\u7528Woody Allen\u7535\u5f71\u91cc\u8bdd\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e24\u96be\uff1a\u201d\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u9762\u4e34\u4e00\u4e2a\u5341\u5b57\u8def\u53e3\u3002\u4e00\u6761\u8def\u901a\u5411\u7edd\u671b\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u6761\u8def\u901a\u5411\u706d\u7edd\u3002\u201c<\/p>\n
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\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u662f1973\u5e74\u4e70\u7684\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n
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